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\nThe novel coronavirus pandemic has been the biggest global economic shock since the 1929 Wall Street Crash. In fact, its ramifications might be even bigger, given that, unlike the 1929 crash, our world is today an integrated global marketplace.
\nThe 1929 crash was triggered largely by the twin crises of over-speculation and over-production. On the span of a single day, the New York plummeted disastrously. Overnight, billionaires became paupers. The spectacle of wealthy people throwing themselves from the rooftops of their proud towers became the iconic spectacle of those troubled times. What made the crisis worse was that the Federal Reserve increased interest rates instead of reducing them. Firms collapsed precipitately. Unemployment fell to 24 percent. Britain as a world power had been in decline. The pound sterling was losing its role as the global reserve currency. The reintroduction of the gold standard made matters worse. According to the theory of \u201chegemonic stability\u201d as propounded by economists such as Charles Kindleberger, the stability of an international monetary order requires a leader or \u201chegemon\u201d that is able to underwrite the system. Nobody was in charge in the thirties. There was also a relentless trade war, with a beggar-thy-neighbour policy that brought everybody to ruin.
\nWithin the space of just weeks, COVID-19 has thrown more than 20 million Americans on the unemployment queue. Thousands of firms have sued for bankruptcy. Major airlines are teetering on the verge of collapse. Canada has switched oil off production in Alberta altogether.
\nUncle Sam still leads the world, with a GDP of $20.49 trillion, as contrasted to China\u2019s $13.4 trillion. But when judged by purchasing power parity (PPP), China is very much ahead, with $27.31 trillion. The signs of America\u2019s terminal decline are on the horizon.
\nThe mandarins in Beijing are the first to shy away from such comparisons; preferring a quiet ascent to super-power status. Through its Made-in-China policy and its multi-trillion-dollar trans-continental Silk Road project and relentless arms build-up, China is quietly repositioning herself as the dominant super-power. The Chinese Yuan was recently admitted into the exclusive club of world reserve currencies and as a member of the IMF\u2019s SDRs basket of currencies. China is at the verge of overtaking America. But she is in no position to underwrite the institutions of global order.
\nMatters have been made worse by America\u2019s retreat from multilateralism. The trade war orchestrated by Donald Trump has been damaging for the open international trading regime that has guaranteed prosperity for my generation. When you add to it the tragedy of Brexit, then you get a grim picture of a gradual dismantling of the architecture of global order. Italy has blamed her European partners for abandoning her to her fate. Earlier on, Paris and Rome had quarrelled bitterly over African youths on rickety boats trying to cross the Mediterranean into Europe. Italy blamed France\u2019s shadowy network of informal empire for destroying African economies, thereby forcing millions of African youths to invade Europe. Like in the 1930s, Europe has become a theatre for ideological extremism, with rising populism in Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Austria, Italy, Estonia and Sweden. No one knows what the post-Coronavirus Europe would look like.
\nThe pandemic has led to capital flight of more than $100 billion from Africa. Oil and commodity prices have collapsed. The spectre of debt and bankruptcy stares us in the face, and with it the fearful ogre of poverty and hunger. In rich and poor countries alike, the lacklustre manner in which governments have handled the pandemic may trigger a crisis of legitimacy that could lead to upheavals and regime change.
\nWhat we face ahead of us is a deepening polarisation in international relations. At the beginning of the pandemic, there was mutual recrimination between China and America. When the pandemic blew out in the industrial city of Wuhan during last November, the Chinese blamed it on visiting American marines. Washington on its part blamed it as the handiwork of the virology laboratory in Wuhan. President Trump insisted on calling it \u201cthe Chinese virus\u201d.
\nConspiracy theories are currently all the rage. Some American lawyers are preparing a lawsuit claiming staggering damages against Beijing. Our own indefatigable lawyers in Nigeria are also making a claim of $200 billion against China at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague. The Germans are also charging Beijing for \u20ac149 billion (about $160 billion). As to be expected, these potential lawsuits have caused not a bit of angst in Beijing.
\nThere are some who view COVID-19 is a war that China has won without firing a shot. Knowing the warlike character of the Americans, they are unlikely to take it lying down, if they believe in their heart of hearts, that COVID-19 is a form of biological warfare that has been unleashed on their population.<\/p>\n